This is the fifth and final in a series of articles on the CSM X Election. Those posts are:
- Full Endorsements – Candidates I strongly recommend for all voters. Under 12% of the candidates earned a Full Endorsement.
- Provisional Endorsements – Candidates I recommend for specific constituencies, but not for everyone. They generally are solid, interesting experts or good candidates that are made a bit redundant by either each other or other Full Endorsement candidates. Under 16% of the candidates earned a Provisional Endorsement. So less than a third (27%) of the field earned any sort of endorsement.
- Recommended Voting Slates – A numerated list of who to vote for by playstyle
- Election Predictions – Who I thought would get in.
- Election Outcomes Analysis (this post)
Yes I said final. Maybe. Maybe I’ll add another if the actual math or order shows weird stuff. No point beating around the bush, let’s jump right in.
I got 11 of 14 correct, which is actually worse than the last two years (where I was 12/14). 7 of my 9 fully-endorsed candidates got in, plus four of my provisional endorsees, again for 11 of 14 I think will do well. But given the largest and most competitive field in CSM history, I’m happy with the results.
The Endorsed and Predicted (10/14)
- Sugar Kyle (Permanent, Full Endorsement): Called this one correctly. Sugar was an incredibly hard worker last year, with broad and deep support. She was the obvious person to take the Permanent role of the non-null vote. Well deserved and in my opinion unsurprising. I read every one of her frequent updates.
- Manfred Sidious (Permanent, Full Endorsement): While I knew Manny would get in, I thought Sion would get the other permanent. What this means is that not only did Manny get broad vote representation, but he was high on the nullsec list across multiple coalitions. To be clear, this makes sense given the ballots that were posted that had him listed high, but my expectation was that the non-CFC non-PL voters would not be disciplined enough to push him past Sion in the STV-2. It looks like they were. Well done!
- Corbexx (Full Endorsement): Of all the incumbents, it is perhaps not surprising that I’ve worked with Corbexx most. He has been a standout CSM member and a hero to the wormhole world. Unfortunately I think he was so good that it meant that no other wormhole candidate could hold a candle and without Corbexx helping to market, no second wormholer had a chance to step out of his powerful shadow. Corbexx, make us proud again, you’re a great voice for w-space.
- Endie (Full Endorsement): Endie will be a good addition as I’ve been saying, especially in the sov world. What will be interesting in the actual voting numbers will be to see whether he came in ahead of or behind Thoric. Endie: Don’t stop writing. Start writing about your experiences in CSM. We need not only what you think but the humor you use to present it.
- Mike Azariah (Full Endorsement): I thought Mike would be a close thing, but I correctly predicted he would make it. Mike will continue to be a contrarian voice. I am sure this drives some of the rest of the CSM crazy (which is likely why Sion called him “an anarchist”) but I do appreciate his “ever-presence” in the community eye.
- Steve Ronuken (Full Endorsement): Steve deserved to get in for all his great work not only as a rep but as a developer. As long as he can be kept away from the AFK Cloaking crowd I rest assured he will be a huge asset all year with low drama values – what every CSM member should aspire to.
- Cagali Cagali (Provisional Endorsement): I don’t know a lot about Cagali but everything I’ve heard has been positive. BRAVE and HERO needed a rep and got one. He seemed to be the clearest candidate for the newbie bloc vote. I hope that he delivers.
- Corebloodbrothers (Provisional Endorsement): I expect Core to be all but invisible to me again this year. But I expect he had another landslide win year, Provi loves him, and it sounds like somewhere, over there out of my sight, he is delivering value. Core, I know you don’t care about anyone other than your Provi bros, but the rest of us out here would like to know what you’re doing too. It’s hard to give you credit when we see nothing from the outside.
- Jayne Fillon (Provisional Endorsement): Jayne was a long-shot prediction and I’m glad he made it on, and I suspect he was the guy who was voted for by almost everybody but down-ballot, so he gets in on a profile like Malcanis or Mangala did. I think his NPSI world will bring a wholly different point of view to CSM representation. I think it will be very good for CCP to get a voice that does not connect with the traditional corp/alliance structure and encourages just flat-out PVP play. I hope he doesn’t end up going down the FunkyBacon road out of frustration.
- Sion Kumitomo (Provisional Endorsement): I originally picked Sion to be a permanent, but Manny’s broad support appears to have gotten him over the top. Sion is a very smart guy and will be the CFC hammer-lobby when compared to the “sov play” lobby of Endie. Sion is a very strong proponent for his alliance and his playstyle. I like that he is pushing for transparency, I’ve been saying for a long time that the NDA provides a shield that is too large. But I hope he finds a way to do it that doesn’t make drama the distinguishing feature of CSM X rather than progress. Sion needs to write more too!
The Endorsed But Not Predicted (1/14)
- Chance Ravinne (Full Endorsement): Chance was a huge long-shot, and like Ali Aras in CSM 8, represented the truly adventurous self-driven newbie. I am pleased to see he made it and I think he will bring a radically different perspective to the CSM. I hope he spends some quality time with the marketing folks. Chance: Bring the voice but it is incredibly important that you do it in a way that is not blatantly self-serving. This was the main criticism of you in the campaign – prove them wrong. Show them you’re right by doing things purely for the good of the game whether or not it’s good for your streams. I want to say great things about you this time next year, not facepalm and apologize.
The Unendorsed Elected (3/14)
- Gorga (Predicted): Top of the N3 ballot meant he would get in. But he ran the stereotypical “worst case” null bloc candidacy. No thread, no communication, name first heard on the day CCP Leeloo posted candidates. Right now, given that track record, I predict 3 months of activity and complaining that he hasn’t gotten his “free trip to Iceland”. Gorga: Prove me wrong.
- Sort Dragon (Not Predicted): I don’t know who Sort paid and how to get so many people to put him on their ballots. Unlike Gorga, who is expected bad but we really don’t know (what we do know is that he either is clueless or doesn’t give a crap about the community beyond his coalition), Sort is proven bad at CSM. He was pretty much acknowledged to be the 13-best CSM member of 14 on CSM 8, and the 14th-best was literally completely absent. As promised: If you voted for Sort Dragon, you wasted your vote and should be headslapped. Sort will do just enough work to get to the Summer Summit (as the 10th of 10 selected) and then disappear of the face of the earth. Sort: Prove me wrong.
- Thoric Frosthammer (Not Predicted): Unlike Gorga and Sort, Thoric at least put in some effort. The fact that he made it in, however, likely 100% on the strength of the CFC with no cross-ballot support, tells you that the CFC vote, getting in three people with two of them solo (I suspect Endie got cross-support), massively outweighed the general public. Again this year, anyone who does the “Grr CFC” thing needs to muster voters or shut up. The CFC knows how to vote and vote smart, and their massive over-representation every year proves it. Thoric seems earnest and I think he will put in the work. The reason I didn’t endorse him was because he seemd to come from a negative (fight to have CCP undo/un-nerf/roll back items) rather than the proactive approach I saw from Endie and Manny. I hope to see Thoric be an addition that helps move the ball forward in good directions (which includes preventing bad ideas as they come) and not simply someone who continues to rehash the past.
The Wrong Predictions
- Bam Stroker (Full Endorsement): I think that Bam missing is a huge loss for the CSM, even if they don’t realize it. Apparently the Aussie vote wasn’t enough, and I’m not sure the pure community play resonates. Bam, keep building your profile and visibility and run again next year. Try to get PL to make your endorsement official and top of ballot (or just behind Manny if he runs again). CSM 11 needs you.
- Khador Vess (Provisional Endorsement): I am surprised that RvB was not strong enough to elect a candidate. My bet is that he might have finished 15th. I suspect that Jayne siphoned off too many votes from him and there wasn’t enough left for a second. I think that it is very likely RvB will return to a seat on CSM 11 if Jayne steps down or pisses RvB off.
- Psianh Auvander (Provisional Endorsement): Honestly Psianh was a pure guess, so it was effectively a coin flip on my part. I think Psianh would have been good but the sov null vote load was simply too much this year.
Messages to Unsuccessful Candidates
- Ashterothi (Full Endorsement): Tough luck. Unfortunately, even with the lore hype train at full steam, I don’t think the lore vote is very big. I would love to see you up your WH cred this year and work with Corbexx to potentially run as a low-class WH candidate next year with lore as a sidelight. We need good folks to run.
- Angrod Losshelin (Not Endorsed): The message is: the bulk of EVE players don’t agree with your views on ISBoxer.
- Ariete (Provisional Endorsement): Good try at it, corpmate! I think you have a shot at better results in CSM 11. Start polishing your story between now and then, get to know Corbexx well, and get visible. I honestly think if you had had more public visibility from last year among the WH corps you would have made it this year.
- Gorski Car (Provisional Endorsement): Keep writing. You may not “be a blog guy” but your blog is great so far. It’s the kind of EVE play I absolutely suck at but find fascinating to learn from. Best PVP and fit mechanics blog since Rifter Drifter.
- Tora Bushido (Not Endorsed): I appreciate that Marmite fulfills a niche and have no issue whatsoever with the Marmite playstyle. But the problem is that the highsec wardec / gank crowd isn’t big enough to get an election done. Unless that base grows, it’s not going to happen.
- UAxDEATH (Not Endorsed): You might need to pay more.
- Xander Phoena (Provisional Endorsement): The brawl with Sion sunk his candidacy. That said, I am honestly thrilled that he will be returning to podcasting full-time. Xander: Keep up the great stuff the CZ site is doing. I think it’s the best regular features site in the community. I consider it my “EVE Magazine” – where TMC and EN24 are both “news” sites. I would also love to see you return to CZ’s short, tight format from before your CSM days. And I am honestly already excited for your CSM 11 interviews. Welcome back.
- Xenuria (Not Endorsed): It’s time to be done running for CSM. Your “supporters” are trolling you and it’s simply not going to happen. Your reputation as is can’t be taken seriously by enough voters and you have no base. If you want it to happen, start building an entirely different reputation on an entirely different character and run on expertise in an area of space or capability, not as an anti-candidate. Any good ideas you may have are drowned out by your reputation under this name.
- Everyone who had no post and no interview until after announcement day: If you want to be taken seriously next year, start your work earlier. Get a post up. Get on interviews. Or you have no shot unless you’re Gorga.