So the voting for CSM 9 is just about to close. I’m going to keep this short and to the point. Here is my guess on the voting outcome to be announced at Fanfest in a couple of weeks. In the end, I think that only 3 of the 14 seats are truly “in play” – and those three will have a ton of competition. With so many different large blocs voting, exact order is a turnout-driven crapshoot, so I am only calling the top two as far as order – the rest are listed alphabetically within a likelihood category.
- The Locks (Top 6) – If these people don’t get in there was a disaster at the voting booth or a massive shift in sentiment no one ever expected.
- Permanent: Sion Kumitomo. Top of the CFC list
- Permanent: Ali Aras. Broadest support with highest listing in endorsements of any candidate
- Corbexx. Actually this should be Wormhole Winner, the wormholers will absolutely get one in. My bet is it’s Corbexx, but if not it will be James or Proclus.
- Major JSilva. Top of the PL list
- Mangala Solaris. Top of the RvB list
- Mynnna. #2 on the CFC list but with broad support and disciplined voters
- The Probables (7-11) – Strong odds that they get in.
- Alner Greyl. As with the wormholers, this is actually Russian Winner – the Russians always get someone on and form ranks nationally rather than along playstyle lines. Ripard is betting on Alner, and I have no idea, so I’m going with it. If not Alner it will be Podli
- DJ FunkyBacon. Top of the Faction War list – the only “maybe” here is that not everyone loved his stance on the Erotica 1 flap.
- Matias Otero. Top of the Brave Newbies list – but Brave has had the worst two weeks of its existence smack in the middle of the voting period, including another candidate bailing on CSM elections and doing a virtual AWOX on BNI – I think this drives votes away from him that should have been Locks.
- Progodlegend. Top of the N3 list – but N3 isn’t renowned for disciplined voting.
- Xander Phoena. Second most broadly endorsed after Ali, including high placement on everything from the CFC ballot to Ripard Teg’s endorsements.
- The Guesses (12-14) – I think these have the best chance to break into the tail end of the vote rolldown. These are the truly tough to guess slots in my opinion.
- James Arget or Proclus Diadochu. As above, this is actually “Wormholer #2″. I think that this person is the last one in, #14. The reasons is that the Wormhole 5 vote is a lot sketchier and less solidarity is being seen beyond the top 3. If someone does get in, my money is on James Arget due to strong CSM 8 service and endorsements, but Proclus has run a great campaign. Asay is seen as too focused on the community sites where the focus needs to be in-game (although he raises a good point that these are different teams – but it isn’t resonating), and Karen is seen as too new.
- Mike Azariah. Mike is almost a “Probable”. He did a great job in CSM 8 and has gotten very good endorsements. But the highsec vote is fickle, disorganized and could go to Ali or the suddenly real candidacy of Steve Ronuken.
- Sugar Kyle. Sugar has run, in my opinion, the best campaign of anyone. She unquestionably deserves to get in, again in my opinion. But her election falls on the shoulders of bloggers, largely unorganized lowsec casual players, and a handful of organized pirate groups. I think it’s going to be a close thing, but I think she gets in.
So that’s 14. Unfortunately it also leaves some good candidates out in the cold. So who else might get one of the last three seats in place of one of The Guesses?
- The Wild Cards (15-21) – These folks have a strong chance of displacing one of the Guesses – especially the second wormholer.
- Awoxing Pizza-Spymaster McBlushooter. No one is really sure whether he’s for real or a joke. The only things that are certain is that he is in Brave Newbies, on multiple lists, and that he has an amazing name – and one that doesn’t bode well for the CSM (if your ROs let a guy with this name into corp they should be fired!). He’s the wildest of the wild cards.
- Corebloodbrothers. It’s going to be a close thing for Core. In fact, when I wrote the final draft of this post, I had him in and James/Proclus out – I changed my mind literally at the last minute. He has Provibloc to himself this time (Ali is no longer there) but in the end I am betting on him for #15 because he has almost no cross-ballot support and Provi isn’t big enough to elect him singlehanded if turnout is what it was last year. He also had a more lackluster campaign this time. He has to pray for good turnout from Provi and bad from everyone else to get in.
- DSNBLACK. Promoted by Trebor. DirtNap is a strong independent entity with good visibility. He’s made a handful of lists.
- Gorski Car. Gorski has run on a bit of an unusual platform – small gang in sov null and lowsec. He’s gotten some nods and some interest from various parties but I don’t think it adds up to election. There are other more high profile candidates (like Jayne and Sugar, or in slightly larger circles FunkyBacon and Mangala) who will siphon votes. He’s also a member of PL, which means many won’t buy the small gang image even if it’s technically accurate … and I don’t think JSilva will have many votes to pass down from the PL ticket.
- Jayne Fillon. Jayne has run a good campaign and has strong visibility – CCP even did a profile of his work right as CSM voting was gearing up. I don’t think it’s quite enough to get him in, especially with the big pile of null candidates that are likely to make it.
- Psychotic Monk. Monk ran a good campaign last year and missed by a small margin. The ganker community is motivated this year and strongly disagrees with the Erotica 1 decision, and this should drive voting participation up. Monk also has a broad endorsement base, since he is the oddball “normal, reasonable” ganker.
- Steve Ronuken. Steve also ran a good campaign last year and missed by a small margin. This year his campaign has been even stronger and he had great achievements to stand on unlike last year. I’m betting that if it’s not Core that knocks out Wormholer #2, it’ll be Steve.
I don’t think any of the others running have a realistic shot.
So that’s it. I’ll be back to do some analysis once we know the real results. Good luck to all the candidates!