So the polls are closed, and if you missed voting, shame on you. But if you were interested enough to read this post, I am assuming you voted. I tried to get a final voter count out of CCP Dolan, but he was being cagey and insisted we wait for Fanfest for any information whatever. They’re really selling this Fanfest stream thing hard.
The reason I asked him for those numbers is that I wanted them for this post – because turnout worse than last year means more success for the organized blocs, and higher turnout likely means more success for independents.
But as you can see, I have an official CCP-sanctioned and provided Magic Crystal Ball in my hangar, and I intend to use it.
So we’ll make a few assumptions. We’ll assume that CCP’s get out the vote effort helped, but that more uneducated voters voted with shorter slates (not filling the full 14) and thus some of their votes disappeared into the ether.
I see the election winners breaking down into two groups: nine who should be in with no problem, and five wildcards that will be driven entirely by voter turnout.
Here are the 9 shoo-ins. I’ll be shocked if they don’t make it. But the order is a guess:
- Mynnna – Top CFC candidate wins. Nuff said. Mynnna will be great and I think would also make a good chairman.
- Kesper North – #2 on the CFC list. They will be disciplined voters and I think they get both of the top two slots by doing so. Every time I hear or read Kesper I like him better, and I wish we had a non-CFCer in the #2 spot, but large, organized voting groups win, especially in STV.
- Sort Dragon – Top of the HBC list and Executor of the HBC. Despite being top of their list, and the HBC being larger than the CFC, the chaos in the ranks knocks him down I think. Sort seems a sharp guy, but I think he will be buried in RL and HBC business this year, and I think that will make him a less-than-stellar CSM member. I also think whoever is #3 doesn’t go to Iceland all year – they will have two permanent sov null members; I doubt CCP will need a third. Either that or he wins one of the top spots, and the HBC suffers (or he resigns as executor).
- Mangala Solaris – I think RvB, plus a significant chunk of EVE University and a sizable portion of the disaffected lowsec vote, gets Mangala a high placement. I think Mangala will do great on the CSM and work hard.
- James Arget – Due to the unique wormhole dynamic this year, a wormholer will almost certainly take either the 5th or 6th place. They are unlikely to be higher due to the other blocs having a more regimented list, and unlikely to be lower due to collectively making up the #3 spot if STV had been used last year. I’m optimistic that it will be 5th and that it will be James due to broad support, numerous endorsements, and taking some of the EVE University vote. James will be a great CSM. If it’s not James, it will be the wormhole winner. I think James (or whichever wormholer takes the top spot) goes to Iceland to prep for Odyssey.
- Korvin – Much like The Wormholer, I think the next place will be The Russian. I think a lot of people are ignoring just how big the Russian voting bloc is in their estimations. I think Korvin and Greene Lee had terrible visibility on the English forums, but I assume they will get the lion’s share of the 5,794 votes that Greene and Death split last year. If Korvin is not here, I predict that Greene will be. I’m picking Korvin due to his numerous endorsements by past CSM members. I’m not confident that either of them will meet the ideals that CSM 6 and 7 set in terms of effort.
- Banlish – The HBC is probably going to wish that they had voted back in December, when unity was high and morale was up. Even though Sala Cameron is higher on the HBC list, I predict that only PL will follow the official list. So PL’s votes go primarily to Sort Dragon, while the rest of the HBC puts their weight behind a split of Sort and Banlish, and Sala loses out. I think this is good news for the CSM, since Banlish – while naive in matters of the CSM and community – is going to be able to learn and help. That said I don’t think he’ll be a standout and I don’t think he’ll see Iceland.
- Ripard Teg – I’d love to put Ripard higher, but I think it will take a cascading effect within STV to get him voted in. We in the blogging, Twitter and forum community know him very well, but outside that? Not as many. And none of them will vote in any particular order. No “blogger candidate” has made it in since Trebor – and those two will also likely be the only ones on CSM 8. Ripard, in my opinion, will be a stellar CSM member, a hard worker, a strong voice and an intelligent one. I would support him for chairman if Mynnna doesn’t want it. I also think Ripard goes to Iceland twice.
- Trebor Daedhoow – I think Trebor hangs on and makes it in, despite not having sent his mass email this year (or maybe I just didn’t get it?). I think his reputation and STV conspire to get him in and over the unhappiness several loud voices have pointed at him. I think Trebor will once again be a strong performer, hard worker, and elder statesman. I also think CCP will fly him to Iceland at least once more.
The Second Tier
After these nine, the crystal ball gets much cloudier. Does the HBC pull it together and get Sala Cameron in higher? Is turnout so low that Kaleb Rysode comes in as part of the top nine too, and the wormholers get a second pick in the top ten? Will Ali Aras pick up a surprise bump from EVE Uni and Brave Newbies and rank top ten? Is there a surprise highsec turnout for Mike Azariah? Does the griefer and wardec community unite behind Psychotic Monk? Does the industry community stop worrying about the Goon label and vote in Unforgiven Storm? Well, here’s my best guess.
- Ali Aras – I think Ali gets in based on Providence bloc, Brave Newbies (who she seems to tangle with regularly), numerous gushing blog posts (including mine) and the strength of her forum post. I really hope so because I think she’ll be awesome and her voice is needed.
- Progodlegend – I’d love to say no one from N3 gets in, but that won’t be the case. Progod did make an OK late accounting of himself, and I have no doubt he’ll be useful to CCP Fozzie on ship stats and in terms of any sov rebalance. Sadly beyond those two subjects I don’t think he’ll be of much use, and he may end up on random crusades for stupid crap like tracking Titans. He will likely be mostly no-show except during rebalancing passes, and that’s probably good.
- Malcanis – Malcanis is in a tough spot, much like Unforgiven Storm. He’s on the bloc lists, but at #8 and #9. He’ll get some unallied null votes and a smattering of other stuff. I think he gets in, but only just, way down here at #12 thanks to STV.
- Sala Cameron – Even with my predicted split and HBC chaos, I think Sala makes it. I also think this is unfortunate since he will not add much more than Progod. Again, I suspect he will be in the no-show category, not go to Iceland, and only pop out of the gopher hole for rebalancing questions after being told Titans are not, in fact, a “sensitive issue”.
- Kaleb Rysode – The downside of having highly disciplined voters getting your first two guys in the top slot is that there’s not much left for #3. Like Progod and Sala, I wish that others would beat them out, but I think the Goon get out the vote effort is just enough to squeak him in above those below.
The Dark Horses
So my predicted CSM makeup is:
- Sov Null: 7. Half the CSM. This is why the STV system was a bad choice and I advocate a change for next year.
- Independents: 5
- Russians: 1
- Wormholes: 1
But I’m hopeful that some of those Sov Null candidates will get bumped out the bottom. I’d love to see Sala, Progod and Kaleb miss the cut. I think there are others within stretching distance, but it will be a long stretch. Here are the dark horses that I think have a chance, in alphabetical order.
- Artctura – He’s got good ideas and is just high enough on both the CFC and HBC lists to have a chance of trickle-down. He’s higher on both lists than Malcanis but doesn’t have the broad visibility and appeal.
- Mike Azariah – Mike put forward the strongest campaign I’ve seen him assemble. He has worked hard to get the highsec vote, and represented himself well. But I think his votes end up getting Ripard and Trebor elected via STV.
- Nathan Jameson (or WH candidate #2) – If voter turnout is bad, or the HBC even more fragmented and non-voting than expected, or the CFC fails in its discipline, I think “Wormhole Candidate #2” takes the 13th or 14th slot. I believe if that happens it will be Nathan thanks to STV from candidates outside wormholes supporting him.
- Psychotic Monk – There is a chance that the griefers, wardeccers, ninjas and some rogue Goons unite to put him over the top. I hope they do. But I think the numbers, especially with all the nerfs in the last year, will prove too few, since he’s 13th on the Goon list, which was his potential ace in the hole.
- Steve Ronuken – Steve is the only one who put up an actual, real advertisement that I saw – on EVE Kill. Name recognition is worth something. I bet he ended up on a lot of “well I don’t know any of the rest of these guys” ballots somewhere between #3 and #8. I think he could add real value to the CREST discussion, especially with the announcement that CCP Unifex will be driving a new mobile strategy.
- Roc Weiler – Roc is a long shot. I think most of his votes will go to others. But there is a small chance that he will be rescued by Faction Warfare voters, music fans, and Tweetfleet.
- Unforgiven Storm – Storm really deserves to get in. I want him to get in. He’s the best industrialist candidate of the lot, other than perhaps Mynnna. But he’s too low on the CFC & HBC list (below both Malcanis and Artctura above) and the Goon corp tag means that only those who have studied up (a small group) will vote him outside of sov null. Too bad, because I think he’d be great.
So that’s it. No more CSM posts until results are announced. Thanks to everyone who voted!